anaheim-gazette 1958-12-25

The NATIONAL OUTLOOK BY RALPH ROBEY 1959 Business This is the time of year for business forecasts. Most companies, of course, went through this procedure weeks ago as a part of the process of preparing their 1959 programs. We shall handle the problem in three parts. First will be a review of how far the recovery has reached. Second will be a brief discussion of present underlying worries. Third and final will be the forecast. The Recovery to Date The only over-all measure of economic activity is gross national product. This is the monetary value of all goods and services produced in the nation. It is calculated on a quarterly basis and always is stated in dollars. It is directly affected by changes in prices and by variations in government spending. The pre-recession high was in the third quarter of 1957. Thereafter, it declined for two quarters and, although the figure for the fourth quarter has not been officially announced, it is believed to be at a new high. To be specific, the former high was just short of $446 billion, the recession low was about $426 billion, and currently we are approximately $450 billion. Total industrial production is measured by an index of the Federal Reserve Board. This uses 1947-1949 as equal to 100 and, since the index is calculated on the number of physical units produced, a change of prices does not affect the result. In August 1957 the index was 145. From that it declined month by month until, in April, it was 126. Then an upturn started which has carried the index to 141. Recovery here in other words has been long complete therein. Total industrial production is measured by an index of the Federal Reserve Board. This uses 1947-1949 as equal to 100 and, since the index is calculated on the number of physical units produced, a change of prices does not affect the result. In August 1957 the index was 145. From that it declined month by month until, in April, it was 126. Then an upturn started which has carried the index to 141. Recovery here, in other words, has been less complete than in gross national product. This is because some industries enjoyed relatively little upswing. A good example of this is the machine tool industry. Construction has been a strong element throughout most of the year. Private housing starts, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, reached their low point in February at 915,000. Since then the total has climbed until, in October it was 1,260,000. Public construction spending has been on the increase for almost the entire year. Total personal income reached its low point in February. Since then it has recovered more than $10 billion and is now at a new all-time high. Retail trade has fully overcome the recession. There was a major shift from durables to non-durables, but the total never declined sharply and recently there has been a pick-up in big-ticket appliances. Farm income in 1958 has been the highest in many years. Crops were of record proportions, and although prices were good, government support payments were the largest in history. Prices at both the consumer and wholesale levels, as measured by government indexes, have been relatively stable for the past several months. This stability, however, has been the result of diverse movements within the indexes. In consumer prices, food has been declining enough to offset increases in other items. At the wholesale level, farm prices have been the offsetting factor. Inventories started to decline at the beginning of the recession and in the first quarter of 1958 the decline was on an annual basis of over $9 billion. Since then there has been a continuous decline in the rate of liquidation and it is expected that by the year's end this drag upon production will be over. Business investment in plant and equipment reached its peak in the third quarter of 1957 at just under $38 billion. It dropped to below $30 billion in the third quarter of 1958, but it is supposed to increase slightly in the fourth quarter. Corporate profits reached their low point in the first a continuous decline in the rate of liquidation and it is expected that by the year's end this drag upon production will be over. Business investment in plant and equipment reached its peak in the third quarter of 1957 at just under $38 billion. It dropped to below $30 billion in the third quarter of 1958, but it is supposed to increase slightly in the fourth quarter. Corporate profits reached their low point in the first Season's Greetings INCLUDING — an ALL NEW ALL OVER AGAIN 1959 CHEVROLET CONE BROTHERS 26 YEARS IN THE SAME LOCATION 215 N. Los Angeles St. ANANHEIM KEyston Since then the recovery has been most but appreciable. An unusual aspect of this profit has been that dividends have been maintained at nearly the 1957 level. This has been accomplished byanies paying out a much larger proportion of their than for many past years. Finally, government spending has been increasing at a rate. Federal spending in the fiscal year ending next will be between $79 and $80 billion, up some $10 over two years ago. If one adds trust funds, which the budget, total outlays will be above $94 billion, and local spending is estimated at $40 billion. Harvard University says it has the largest university in the world—more than six million books andlets. S. Anaheim Gazette San Francisco, Dec. 26, 1958 SAN FRANCISCO. — Luther W H Einung electronics technician, USN, son of Mr. and Mrs. Luther Einung of 1007 S Cambridge Anaheim graduated Dec 5 from the Navy's Basic Electronics Technician School at the Treasure Island Naval Station, San Francisco. Graduates of this school are qualified in the maintenance and repair of electronic equipment in use aboard Navy ships. BARSTOW Charles E Claus of allegiance upon six years whose Marine Corps Barstow Has withdrawn Nancy J Mattheus Street An ent for the commanding officer K Parker admitted Nov. 7. Before December 1954 he DeWitt High School Neutr FOR GAZETTE WANT ADS... CALL KEystone Holiday Greetings WE TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO SINCERELY THANK OUR MANY FRIENDS AND TO WISH ONE and ALL A MERRY, MERRY CHRISTMAS...and the well-dressed balloonist wears while soaring aloft to coastal rays, has undergone a great change in the past 50 Victor Hesler, above, wore a business suit when riding in the basket of an Austrian Army balloon as he made the first ray study at a high altitude in 1912. U.S. Navy balloonists r Lewis left and Cmdr. Malcom Ross wore pressure suits same pursuit early this year. Linoleum OWSTONS shades Complete Floor Covering Service O Formica • Venetian Blinds • Broadloom Carpeting 718 N. 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